“The gift of work is the antidote to...despair-causing entropy.”
Gary C. Lawrence, Pollster
"When we fail to deliver a good job that fits a citizen's talents,
training and experience, we are failing the great American dream."
The Big Lie: 5.6% Unemployment Gallop Opinion, 3 Feb 2015
by Jim Clifton, Chairman and CEO at Gallup
We’re going to live in a world with much less employment.”
“40% women, 28% men, 39% youth don't want a job”
Pew Research,14 Nov 2014
If this is true then, “Houston, we have a problem."
JOBS #1 Priority - U.S. Goal: More Jobs Than Workers
(Not government jobs which drain vitality from the private sector)
FACT: U.S. Needs 62 Million New Jobs -in Next 10 Years- to Stay Even
Labor Force Participation (LFP) Rate from Current 63% to 73%
Unemployed U-3 2013 BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Discouraged unemployed not looked for work in over 4 weeks U-4 & 5 (not U-1,2,3)
Under-Employed work part-time to survive until get full-time job (U-6 not U-1 thru 5)
New Job Seekers (1.8 million per year 18 million over next 10 years) @ 73% LFP
3.2 million HS grads + 1.2M HS dropouts = 4.4 million new job seekers, minus 1.9 million job openings via 65+ retiring or dying; 4.4MM-1.9MM=2.5 million/yr x 73%=1.8
Should Work -people who should, could, & want work & not counted above
-2.5 million 25% of disabled who, with accommodation, can, will, & want to work
- 8 million 40% adults >50% government assistance: can/should be required to work
- 3 million intern & apprentice jobs for college, vocational, & high school students 16+
-10 million 65+ seniors needing extra income & want to work, cannot compete today
New/Additional Jobs Needed in Next 10 Years - Currently short 3+ million/year
Labor Force Participation (LFP) Rate - Working full or part-time includes Americans & foreign born.
Civilian Potential Labor (CPL) - Able to work age 16 to 65 not incarcerated not military & DoD.
Fact "unemployed" is not the same as "not-working.” According to the United Nations employment tracking formulation, which is embraced by the U.S. BLS, there are around 10 million Americans counted as "unemployed." Actually, according to sound logic and reason there are over 90 million Americans who are able to work, want to work, but are “not-employed.”
Scary Employment Facts - Headlined
Record 94,708,000 working age Americans NOT in Labor Force - May 2015 (CNSNews.com)
Labor Force Participation (LFP) rate drops to 62.6% a 38-year record low
150,000 net new job seekers enter labor force every month(1.8 million/yr -see table -line30B)
38,000 jobs growth May 2016 [Yet] unemployment falls to 4.7% (MarketWatch.com) [WHAT?]
6.16 million/yr new jobs need to be created every year for next 10yrs (73%LFP-table line31B)
513,000/month new jobs created -that’s 300,000/mo more than any month for Bush or Obama
11,000 “actual” jobs in Dec 2015; BLS claim of 292,000 is a "seasonal adjustment” faux
90% of jobs growth are part-time or seasonal jobs - less than 10% are full-time
80% of jobs growth are for minimum wage - less than 20% more than minimum wage
46% of workers (not retired) live paycheck to paycheck (Harris Poll 2014)
48 million jobs are “low paying” (FNC Jul14)
11.5 million fewer people in workforce since Obama took office (CNS News Aug14)
1st time in U.S. history more companies close than open -only in Pres Obama’s time in office
102 million work full-time year-around of 247 million able to work (CPL) (table -lines 2&13)
40 million of the 102 million are employed directly or indirectly by government (P&P, J Gitter)
62 million private sector workers pay for remaining 253 million Americans & 12+million aliens
>10 million non-producing jobs, 6 Billion hours, & up to $1 Trillion wasted on tax compliance
59% of 247 million CPL (145 mil) are either unemployed, under-employed, or benefit takers
5 times more “not-working” & under-employed than jobs available (4.0 million openings 2014)
20% of jobs require a 4 year college degree -yet colleges produce 30% (College Myth Jul 13)
1 in 3 jobs will be taken by software or robots by 2025 (Computerworld Oct14)
34% of Americans (108 mil) receive direct government means-tested “welfare” assistance
7 million more means-tested benefit takers than full-time workers (108.6 million to 101.7 mil)
2.3 times more benefit takers & government employees then full-time private sector workers
- 109 million BTs + 40 million Govt = 149 million ÷ 62 million PS = 2.29 times or 60% more
In 35 states, being on welfare pays better than minimum wage (Kato Institute)
25.4 million 16.4% workforce (LFP) are foreign born (naturalized, visa, or illegal) (table-line 5)
All employment growth since 2000 went to immigrants. National Review 26 Jun 2014
100% of female employment gains have been taken by foreigners since 2007
75% tech workers in Silicon Valley are foreign born
65% of US farm workers are aliens-10% H-2A visas & 55% illegal; total 423,000 plus families
527,127 people overstayed their U.S. visas in 2015, 90% are still here
Beijing overtakes NYC as 'Billionaire Capital of the World' -Feb 2016
Building robot McDonald's staff 'cheaper' than hiring minimum wage workers (Mirror 25May16)
“Pursuit of Happiness”
Happiness is a product of work.
The “Pursuit of Happiness” is an inalienable right. Happiness is a product of work. Everyone needs to work this is natural law. If you are in denial of this basic human requisite then read no further. Clear back in 1943 Abraham Maslow articulated the “Hierarchy of Needs” and nearly all later studies have confirmed that the five (5) needs: Physiological, Safety, Love/belonging, Esteem, and Self-actualization as fundamental to human progression.
Deniers: Unfortunately many people do not understand the truth about the necessity of work. Among them, for example, are Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, who agree with fellow billionaire, Vinod Khosta that, "The idea that everyone needs to work ... is not true." This is unbelievable. But, Page continues, "...the things you need to make yourself happy -- housing, security ... it's not that hard for us to provide those things." Wait it gets better, listen to what these billionaire geeks’ call a solution. According to Page, "They don't have enough jobs in the U.K. So, their buddy, Richard Branson, founder of the Virgin Group, [is] trying to get people to hire two part-time people instead of one full-time." Source: ABC News, 7 Jul 2014, By Alyssa Newcomb
Unbelievable, how can such financially successful people be so totally naive and ignorant about the true meaning and purpose of life? When Branson has his pilots at Virgin Air work only half days maybe then he can be taken seriously.
While one person could provide what Maslow calls the “Physiological” needs (i.e., “housing, security”) for another person. The only possible way for an individual him or herself to progress to Maslow level 2, 3, 4 or 5, is by providing for his, or her, own “Physiological” needs which means engaging in productive employment (a.k.a. get a job, do any kind of work).
“Man does not live by bread alone.” Jesus Christ.
Never has the understanding of this basic truth of life been more convoluted than today. If a man is fed by someone else and does not return the favor, or ever learn to provide for his own care, he will never leave Maslow level one. Work is the bread of life. “Man shall not live by bread alone, but by every word that proceedeth out of the mouth of God.” Matthew 4:4
Christians believe caring for the poor means teaching them how to fish. A Christian ministry, or church, sees its mission as teaching its members how to teach others how to fish. This is not religious dogma it is simply pointing out natural law. Basic conservatism embraces work as essential to happiness; even more importantly any policy, stigma, or program, that discourages an individual from wanting to work or disincentivizing her or him in any way is a violation of natural law.
Poverty (Being Poor) Defined
Poverty is when individuals are not attaining their basic needs by way of their own efforts. To rely on someone else to supply ones basic needs with no way to get out from under the suppliers control is poverty (a.k.a. slavery).
Government assistance keeps people in poverty. It robs them of initiative.
Charity means showing people their way out of poverty.
People come to America because they want to take care of themselves.
This is “American Exceptionalism.”
Five (5) Categories of Work - everyone is in one of these
1. Training -Learning to work, intern, apprentice --role for secondary education ages 14 to 17; training is ongoing a lifetime pursuit.
2. Unemployed -In reality unemployment is the hardest work of all. Sending resumes, calling employers, research jobs requirements & company backgrounds, interviews and zero percent (%) reusable let alone compensated.
3. Money Needs -Work a job I don’t like to get money for things I want or need.
4. Career -Chosen work that one has been trained to do and/or enjoys or loves to do.
5. Post Career -Volunteer or part-time-paid -because work is meaningful and life fulfilling.
We can establish that work is an act of being gainfully employed and it is a natural and necessary characteristic of every living person. Some, a small number, and because of either retirement or financial security, may gain daily success by way of volunteer work. However, everyone needs some form of work to be contributing members of society as well as fulfilling their own spiritual requirements.
Some need to work because of financial necessity, while others choose to work because they understand it brings meaning to their lives. This latter group does not need the money however, money is a key indicator and measure of the value of one’s work.
An honest days work is among the most truly fulfilling of all activities on earth. Those of us who have accepted the existence of an afterlife know that work (especially good works) will be the standard in that eternal existence.
This is what employment is and the reason we need lots more jobs.
For example currently (2013) in the U.S. nearly 70% of retirees choose to continue to work for pay. Many part-time, however a significant number do so for the pure joy that work brings to them and their families and associates.
Why do you suppose Betty White (at age 93 and completely financially secure) is still working?
Why does multi-millionaire Nancy Pelosi (age 74) keep working? Well in her case it’s about power.
George Burns worked until he died at 100 years of age. Started singing in the Pee-Wee Quartet at age 6, after spending time working as a candy syrup maker.
The child, George Burns, working at age 6 brings up the whole area of family businesses especially farming, movies, entertainment (e.g., Duck Dynasty), and others. Where entire families work and children are essential for the families’ success. More needs to be done to preserve this purposeful lifestyle choice while at the same time being aware of abuse or exploitation of children. Child labor in and of itself is not abuse. Requiring a child to work is not abuse, in fact allowing a child to avoid work is the real abuse. The conditions of the work and the abusive conduct of parents or “bosses” are the issues.
Work Myths Let us clear up any myths about work. “Old people need to get out of the way” - a myth and a lie. Let us completely disregard any discussion about retirees, a.k.a. seniors, needing to move over so there will be more job openings for younger workers. That is simply unacceptable, it’s down right unAmerican.
“In fact, most economists dispute this. When women entered the workforce, there weren't fewer jobs for men. The economy simply expanded.” USA Today Jan14
The “right” to work is a necessity and everyone has a right to earn their own way. In fact any policy, doctrine, or government program that in anyway discourages or even disincentivizes any able bodied or able minded individual from accepting and fulfilling this inalienable right is wrong.
The tragic results are well documented and all around us are examples of the “idle rich” and the something-for-nothing crowd. Meaningful and honest work is a basic requirement for success, family and personal.
With sufficient jobs (more jobs than workers) there is no need for minimum wages, no need for price controls, no need for import tariffs, no need for government workplace regulations, no need to remain working at a job you hate just of the medical insurance.
Health care and other so called “golden handcuffs” should not be connected to any job. Individuals must be able to procure transportable insurance plans in the free market. They may negotiate for their employer to pay the premiums while employed, but the policy ownership title remains with the individual not the employer.
A definition of slavery is dependency on someone other then oneself for essentials of living. Especially if compelled or forced to perform.
Governments role in the jobs market must be limited to only assuring of rights of each individual to take care of him or herself.
Bigger and bigger government advocates, especially Secular-Progressives (S-P) fail to understand, work as a right, a necessity, and when you offer assistance without accountability it is like a spiritual death sentence. This is the case with all “government” assistance.
As an example, the “Welfare” program of the LDS Church (Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, aka Mormons) all assistance (100%) is distributed at the sole discretion of the local bishop, a non-paid volunteer minister and leader of a congregation of around 500 members. No authority above a bishop is allowed to disperse funds for assistance to anyone within the geographical boundaries of that bishop’s ward. Not even the worldwide President of the Church has that authority. Only a bishop, who knows the recipient personally and has discussed that person’s needs with them, is the issue of Church assistance. The recipients themselves, when able, are encouraged to work assisting other members doing things like yard work, house work, mechanical repairs, or engage in Church or community service.
Basic Judeo-Christian ethics require work; the purpose of life is to work.
“...cursed is the ground for thy sake; In the sweat of thy face shalt thou eat bread...” Geneses 3:17-19 KJV
It’s not about the necessity of work rather about the morality of work vs the immorality of not working (or bearing ones own weight) in society. It is an essential attribute of human dignity and self respect. Self esteem if you prefer to call it that.
The purpose of the United States is liberty and freedom for all. Inalienable Rights: life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness (e.g., property ownership, provide for my own care, and receive nothing from anyone or entity to which I am in anyway obligated).
The single greatest concept of liberty is work. Freedom to work. To provide for the needs and desires of myself and my family through honest work. Nothing is even in the same room as far as needs or fulfillment of human need as is an honest days work. Anything that is less than that by cheating, not doing your best, scheming, or outright illegal conduct are from the dark side. The core of this is the very first act recorded of Cain killing his brother Abel. The act of murder is evil and but the reason why Cain was led to want to murder his brother may be the greater evil. He actually believed that he could gain advantage in life by taking it from someone else. This is lottery 101, 3-Card Monty, pyramid scheme, fraud, deceit, “something for nothing,” etc., etc.
Regardless of your belief about God, the story of Cain and Abel whether real, which I believe, or not serves as the earliest recorded metaphor regarding murder and the reason or motive behind murder.
Most men/women will never produce a great building, direct a major movie, but each and every person may produce an honest days work. Anyone may gain the satisfaction of accomplishment of doing something and being rewarded directly for having done so. Charity is important however the greater blessing of charity is to the giver not the receiver. This is why bureaucrats should not be givers.
Next time at Christmas ask not, “what did you get for Christmas;” but rather, “what did you give?”
America is freedom. Freedom takes hard work. Liberty is ability to stay out of jail. To obey the law takes effort. If you want to play the saxophone with ease it takes effort. Soon it will appear to be easy like Kenny G but it is always hard work just fun. All work is effort just accept that. Even doing fun stuff takes effort, so why not choose to make work fun. Stop trying to figure out how to get something for nothing just earn what you need. Work is natural just do it.
Official BLS -Dec 2013 (10Jan14)- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – 5 Feb2014
Population US Census2013 Include: kids, adults, & 2.4million incarcerated - 20yr ave yearly growth rate 1% = 3.2 million/year
Civilian Potential Labor (CPL) -16 yrs & up, noninstitutionalized (% is of 315million pop.) --NOT Armed Forces 1.43 million
Not in CPL Armed Forces (+690,232 Civilian +108,833 DoD +850,880 Reservists = 3,661,339 Total Military & Affiliated) BLS 2013
H-1B High Tech 135,991 Temp Work Visas 2012 -“non-immigrant foreigners”
H-2A Agriculture 65,345 & H-2B non-ag 50,009 in 2012 -Temp/Seasonal
Fact: 1.6 million visas issued in 2012; 9 million visa holders remain in US 2013
LFP includes 25.4 million “foreign born” residents in U.S. (legal and illegal) –NOT U.S. Citizens - BLS Table A-7
LFP includes Independent Contractors (Census 2010) -Does not include: Inc, LLC, LLP “Self Employed” (5 million additional)
Discouraged (U-4) & Marginally Attached (U-5)
—Above not counted as unemployed (U-3)
And also not counted in Labor Force Participation (LFP)
(Note: U-4 & U-5 jumped 300,000 in one (1) month Nov13 to Dec13)
Labor Force Participation (LFP)* (lowest -low bad- since 1979) it is “faux” -80% is “Real” LFP see Line-26A&C below
Actually Employed BLS (Full, P-T, & Involuntary Part-Time) & Self Employed -Done by Survey 60,000 US HH not actual data.
UnEmployed (U-3) -Line-8B minus Line-9B (% is line-10B ÷ line-8B) – Confirmed by Survey not actual data.
U-5 (includes U-1 through U-4) See Line-7A plus Line-8B = LFP with Discouraged & Marginally Attached
U-6 Involuntary Part-Time (IPT) -Need/Want Full-Time Job -BLS Oct 2013 –Line-11A+Line-12B ÷ Line-8A
FYI Full-Time year round jobs. Not FT 43 million (30%) workers are P-T or seasonally/temporary full-time
Do Not Participate in labor force (2B -8B %=14A÷2B) -lower is better -highest (%) since 1979 Pres. Carter -Incl 7A D&MA(U-4&5)
100% Volunteers serving worldwide not paid work, e.g., missionaries, aid workers, et.al.
100% Expatriates Estimated between 2.2 & 6.8 million U.S. Citizens living abroad** Est 1 million workers. 100% not work US
Est. 75% on disability NOT able to work, with accommodations; (1996 SSDisability 5 mill--doubled (200% increase) to 10.1 mill in 17yrs)
Est. 70%, 65+ NOT need work, 41.4 million, less 7.7million (18.5%) already in labor force.Include: Social Security, Medicare, All Pensions
Est. 60% on “welfare” NOT able to work.108 million (2012 total) -minus 23.5% children = 82,620,000 x 25% (20.7 million >50% dependent, who are NOT counted elsewhere, e.g., unemployed. Include: SNAP, Medicaid, Housing Assistance. NOT: Social Security or Medicare 19A
Est. 40% College Degree Students*** not able to work (e.g., heavy class load, sports, family needs) or already employed
Est. 50% Post High School Vocational, Technical, Trade School & Community College -90% Employed or Included Elsewhere
Est. 25% High School*** (age16-17 7.8mil/18-19 1.8mill) not able to work or already employed -3.2million grads enter job market yearly
NEW Total Who “Do NOT Participate in Labor Force” -Sum 15A thru 22A above in 2014
Subtotal Additions to “Labor Force Participation” -Difference 14A minus 23A -Does NOT include new entries into labor force 30B
Goal FULL Labor Force Participation # & Rate -SUM # is 8B +24B – & % is 25A ÷ 2B
U-5 TRUE Unemployment (U-1 thru U-5) Adjusted “Purpose of Life,” 26B is 10B +24A & % is 27B ÷26A
Involuntary Part-Time (IPT) -Need/Want Full-Time Job -BLS Oct 2013 –See 12B
High Sch 14-15yrs Internships-Offset by IPT (27B) freed up when 7.7M part-time shift to full-time -6.7 million (2012 Census)
U-6 UnEmployed (10.3M) 10B & Under-Employed (7.7M) 27B +New True Labor Force Participation (42.4M) 26B
Growth/Annual Increase (NEW U-7 & U-8 Table): 3.2 million/yearly graduate HS +1.2 million/yearly HS dropouts = 4.4 million; turning 65 (10,000/day) = 2.2 million x 32.2% remaining in LFP 65+ 7.7M x 4.3% death rate (charts p18/19) = 1.9 million; 4.4 minus 1.9 = 2..5 million x 73% LFP = 1.8. [Note: 2013 population growth 3.2 million/Yr, 0.8%]
10 Year Projection - Total Jobs Needed --10 Year Total=
31A Month & 31B Annual; 10Yr = C30x10+C29
Sum of lines 15A to 23A is on Line-24A & represent the NEW Total of Who "Do NOT Participate in Labor Force" at 27% down from current 37%.
*Does not include the 2.5 million FTE (full-time equivalents) lost from the disincentives attributed to the ACA (a.k.a. Obamacare).
**Undocumented workers: counted in LFP, but not in population or CPL. No accounting for: black market or under-the-table workers. Incarcerated prisoners (are “employed”) 2.4 million p7. Ironically same # as MA&D Line-7. What about Americans working outside U.S. (Garrett in AZ) -not expatriates abroad (est. 2.2 to 6.8 mil).
***All college, high school, vocational students should be required, as part of curriculum, to maintain an internship, paid and with school credit. These internships wold be part-time during the school year and full-time during breaks -working at a business or government agency. Employer to Student ratio is 4:1 (every 4 workers : 1 intern).
Current (U-1 to U-6) Jobless Assessment Measure
Approved by United Nations (U.N.) International Labour Organization (ILO)
Used by U.S. Bureau of Labor Management (BLM)
Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
Looked for work in last 4 weeks.
U-3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U-4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
Looked for work in last 12 months but not last 4 weeks.
U-5 + “part time workers” want to work full time, but cannot due to economic reasons.
Proposed (U-7 to U-12) Jobless Assessment Measure
Do NOT Need (or want) U.N. Approval
U-6 + “new-job seekers”, those who enter job market for first time. New entrants minus those leaving workforce (by choice: retire, death, health, homemaker, other (not fired, laid-off)). Fact: 3.2 million graduate High School and 1.2 million dropout HS every year for total of 4.4 million new-job seekers a year. Workers 65+ who retire, or die, are less than 1.9 million per year. 4.4 minus 1.9 = 2.5 x 73% LFP = 1.8 million net new-job seekers a year (150,000 a month) added to unemployment.
Full disclosure actual % of LFP who need jobs.
“self employed” & LLC, LLP, INC need to be part of LFP %
Track as %
“government jobs” by federal, state, local, tribal (e.g., special districts, schools, regional agencies). Breakout by direct government employee, indirect, or contract employee. Fact: Administration tells us there are fewer federal “employees” intimating that government has shrunk. While there may be fewer direct government employees government is still growing by using contract employees and outsourcing. This measure counts all people working directly and/or indirectly for all government agencies.
Track government jobs as
% of total workforce
“training”, track: vocation, trades, interns, apprentices, student teachers, residency, et. al., number of “seats” needed vs. available slots.
Track ratio of need
“university graduates”, job placement alignment with major field of study. Fact: Less than 20% U.S. jobs require 4 year college degree; universities are graduating 30%.
Solution: Refund of tuition for graduates not getting jobs in alignment with major field of study or degree. A student may sign a waiver and give up the option for tuition reimbursement and take courses not recommended for jobs needed in real world.
Hold universities accountable for educational relevance
“obsolete jobs”, jobs in decline. Knowing this is essential to assist future-job seekers in selecting jobs that will be there when they graduate. Facts: 1 in 3 jobs replaced with robots by 2025; in the prior 30 year period 9 of 10 telephone operators have been replaced by computers.
Track decline in occupational types
I know this whole “unemployed vs not working” sounds like a bad version of the Abbott and Costello "Who's on First" baseball routine (see routine adapted to who’s unemployed vs who’s not working below). But it is fact that "unemployed" is not the same as "not-working." - Written in 2013
COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America.
ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 7.8%.
COSTELLO: That many people are out of work?
ABBOTT: No, that's 14.7%.
COSTELLO: You just said 7.8%.
ABBOTT: 7.8% Unemployed.
COSTELLO: Right 7.8% out of work.
ABBOTT: No, that's 14.7%.
COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 14.7% unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, that's 7.8%.
COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 7.8% or 14.7%?
ABBOTT: 7.8% are unemployed. 14.7% are out of work.
COSTELLO: If you are out of work you are unemployed.
ABBOTT: No, Congress said you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed.
COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!!
ABBOTT: No, you miss the point.
COSTELLO: What point?
ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair.
COSTELLO: To whom?
ABBOTT: The unemployed.
COSTELLO: But ALL of them are out of work.
ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work gave up looking and if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed.
COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment rolls that would count as less unemployment?
ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely!
COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work?
ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how they get it to 7.8%. Otherwise it would be 14.7%. Our government doesn't want you to read about 14.7% unemployment.
COSTELLO: That would be tough on those running for reelection.
COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment number?
ABBOTT: Two ways is correct.
COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job?
COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job?
COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to have people stop looking for work.
ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an Economist.
COSTELLO: I don't even know what the hell I just said!
ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like Congress.